The invention relates generally to turbine engines and, particularly, to analyzing operational parameters and identifying performance changes in a turbine engine over a period of operation. Specific embodiments of the present technique provide a method for trending exhaust gas temperature and, thus, engine deterioration of a turbine engine based on measurable parameters of the turbine engine.
In general, engine deterioration results in an increase in the exhaust gas temperature (EGT). Unfortunately, exhaust gas temperature is a function of several other variables, which vary at different times and conditions during take-off, flight, and landing. As a result, the exhaust gas temperature is not readily apparent or obtainable for purposes of predicting engine deterioration.
The existing approach for estimating engine deterioration involves analyzing a plurality of engines to create an ensemble model, which is then used to estimate engine deterioration for a particular engine outside of the ensemble of engines. Unfortunately, the ensemble model may be inaccurate due to the unique operational patterns, maintenance history, manufacturing tolerances, and other characteristics of each individual engine. In other words, the ensemble model may predict engine deterioration too early or too late for a particular engine. An early prediction could result in early downtime and lost operation hours for a particular engine, whereas a late prediction could result in undesirable performance, unscheduled repairs, and unexpected delays in a flight schedule.
Hence, there exists a need for an improved and reasonably accurate method for estimating the exhaust gas temperature trends of a turbine engine.